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Number of messages in the thread: 1

1. Date: 2008-12-02 04:08:43
Subject: BoM Forecasts Wrong As Usual
From: "bnozo" <b...@...com> Search message by this author

Brisbane-Toowoomba floods 18-20 Nov 08 highlight failure of 28 Oct BoM rain
Outlook

November 23 2008

Warwick Hughes

In three short weeks the BoM rain Outlook prediction gets shot to pieces by
real world weather.

This inset map shows the BoM predicted on 28th October that the Brisbane
region had only a 45% chance of average rain for the November to January
period.

To see the original map select the 28th October 2008 rain prediction.

Sadly for the BoM prediction a series of high rainfall storms hit the region
from the 18th-20th November

see map inset of rain anomalies from 1st to 23rd November.

You can make various rain maps at this BoM site

See earlier articles re BoM rain Outlook failures:

Early May BoM prediction for Queensland dry shot to pieces quickly in June

BoM forecast dry in Queensland contradicts their 23 April modelled rainfall
Outlook

COMMENTS

John A Says:

November 23rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm

At the risk of being contrarian for the sake of it, the BOM can hardly be
blamed for missing a weather event in a climate modelling forecast.

On the other hand, they've been consistently wrong for quite a long time,
haven't they Warwick? It's amazing that they haven't managed to strike it
lucky even by chance.

WSH Says:

November 24th, 2008 at 2:49 pm

How are you JohnA.

There are earlier articles last Autumn expressing my views re BoM 3 month
Outlooks.

Also when I drew attention to Prof Vizard's paper where he found aspects of
the BoM rain predictions "totally useless".

I doubt that weather can be predicted even 10 days ahead, let alone the
30-90 that the BoM attempt. Every month when their Outlooks are issued the
media runs the BoM puff n nonsense as though it is fact.The media never
examine the results in 3 months time, so I do.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=182

Warmest Regards

Bonzo