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I remember the investment environment of the 70s as being a dismal
place to be. It was like a rainy period that just seemed to go on
forever. An awful lot of folks who had thought of themselves as
"long-term investors" caved before it ended.
Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
experienced during that period of economic contraction? Something
tells me it was greater than the current drop (so far).
-HW "Skip" Weldon
Columbia, SC
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On Oct 9, 10:41 am, "HW \"Skip\" Weldon"
<s...@y...com> wrote:
> I remember the investment environment of the 70s as being a dismal
> place to be. It was like a rainy period that just seemed to go on
> forever. An awful lot of folks who had thought of themselves as
> "long-term investors" caved before it ended.
> Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
> experienced during that period of economic contraction? Something
> tells me it was greater than the current drop (so far).
The S&P 500 went from 92 to 107 in that decade. It was 65 about
September 23, 1974.
--
Ron
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"HW "Skip" Weldon" <s...@y...com> wrote
>I remember the investment environment of the 70s as being a dismal
> place to be.
snip
> Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
> experienced during that period
By Robert Shiller's data, approximately
1973 = 118 (the high for the decade)
1975 = 73 (the low for the decade) = 38% decline
1981 = first time S&P climbed to 1973 levels
> of economic contraction?
As far as investments are concerned, I would not measure economic
contraction by stock indices such as the S&P 500 as much as I would
consider inflation and dividends. Inflation was high, as you recall.
>From 1969 to 1981, the S&P 500's dividends pretty steadily grew and
ended up more than doubling. This represents roughly a 6% annual
growth rate of dividends. It was not enough to keep up with inflation
but it seems not so bad either, at least from where I am sitting,
especially since one's personal inflation index may differ quite a bit
from the conventional one.
About a month ago I began to think that today's calamity resembles the
1930s more than it does the 1970s. The 1930s collapse was based in too
much credit. When it became clear that the credit was not going to be
backed, people lost confidence. We then saw the ultimate horror, bank
runs. The house of cards fell and the economy slowed, people consuming
less, companies cutting payrolls, people consuming still less, and so
on in that vicious cycle. I think it more likely that dividends will
decline a lot in the next few years, like the Depression. Dividends
fell by roughly half in the 1930s.
The better news is that inflation is likely to decline, too.
I remain a long-term investor, because the machinations of the economy
make sense to me. It is not all going to become worthless. I own
companies, and they have value with their assets. Until a few weeks
ago, on a few stock positions I was even taking some gains and buying
some other, large company stocks. Now, like many others, I am not
making any move (though I am awaiting a $10k CD to come due in a month
and then may buy more stock). Thank goodness I have been reasonably
well diversified, with a nice pile of CDs and cash.
Lastly, like in 1987 I take the view that 60% or so of a lot of money
is still a lot of money, and I managed the similarly wild gyrations of
2001-2002 as well. All of us who are retired with reasonable assets
should go fishing and enjoy life.
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Ron Peterson wrote:
> On Oct 9, 10:41 am, "HW \"Skip\" Weldon"
> <s...@y...com> wrote:
>
>>I remember the investment environment of the 70s as being a dismal
>>place to be. It was like a rainy period that just seemed to go on
>>forever. An awful lot of folks who had thought of themselves as
>>"long-term investors" caved before it ended.
>
>
>>Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
>>experienced during that period of economic contraction? Something
>>tells me it was greater than the current drop (so far).
>
>
> The S&P 500 went from 92 to 107 in that decade. It was 65 about
> September 23, 1974.
I find total returns of:
1970 3.50%
1971 14.10%
1972 18.70%
1973 -14.50%
1974 -25.90%
1975 36.70%
1976 23.60%
1977 -7.20%
1978 6.40%
1979 18.20%
Which if you multiply out, a dollar goes in ends up at $1.75.
I then looked at the inflation adjusted numbers and saw a total decade
return of -20%. Ouch. A lost decade.
Joe
www.blog.joetaxpayer.com
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On Oct 9, 11:41 am, "HW \"Skip\" Weldon"
<s...@y...com> wrote:
> I remember the investment environment of the 70s as being a dismal
> place to be. It was like a rainy period that just seemed to go on
> forever. An awful lot of folks who had thought of themselves as
> "long-term investors" caved before it ended.
I was a little kid during the 1970s and used to watch the evening news
with parents every day at dinner. On the news, a screen with the Dow
Jones movement that day would be shown for a few seconds before a
commercial. I thought it was the "Down" Jones because it typically
went down. I remember asking my parents at dinner, "why people invest
in stocks when they usually go down? Are they crazy?".
Now I'm an adult who has read a lot about the "equity risk premium"
and is one of those investors, and my wife, the investment amateur, is
asking me the same question. It's not easy to give a convincing
answer.
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h...@g...com wrote:
>About a month ago I began to think that today's calamity resembles the
>1930s more than it does the 1970s. The 1930s collapse was based in too
>much credit. When it became clear that the credit was not going to be
>backed, people lost confidence. We then saw the ultimate horror, bank
>runs.
To some extent, we are getting bank runs now. More in Europe than the US and
more businesses than individuals. But when banks don't trust banks, how can we
expect others to?
>The house of cards fell and the economy slowed, people consuming
>less, companies cutting payrolls, people consuming still less, and so
>on in that vicious cycle. I think it more likely that dividends will
>decline a lot in the next few years, like the Depression. Dividends
>fell by roughly half in the 1930s.
Yep, we're starting this, too. While the S&P looks cheap on a forward PE basis,
the earnings estimates are way too high.
>The better news is that inflation is likely to decline, too.
Consumer prices declined considerably in the 30's. I don't recall how much. The
good news is that government mistakes like a balanced budget, shrinking money
supply, and Smoot-Hartley are unlikely to be repeated. So I don't expect
anything that long or deep.
We are likely to see a new set of mistakes. I'm not knocking Bernanke and
Paulson, just noting that we are sailing unknown waters.
>I remain a long-term investor, because the machinations of the economy
>make sense to me. It is not all going to become worthless.
"This too shall pass". It was true in Solomon's time. It's true now.
> Thank goodness I have been reasonably
>well diversified, with a nice pile of CDs and cash.
[snip]
>All of us who are retired with reasonable assets
>should go fishing and enjoy life.
Us retired folks can sleep a lot easier if we've got several years' expenses in
cash or near cash. I really feel sorry for those that don't.
For those of you still in the accumulation phase, these are good times. Really.
There are good investments on fire sale. Keep dollar cost averaging in. You'll
thank me in ten years.
-- Doug
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"HW "Skip" Weldon" <s...@y...com> wrote in message
news:rptre4d8jef6fvrpl93v2ka0c0fgj18c30@4ax.com...
>
> Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
> experienced during that period of economic contraction? Something
> tells me it was greater than the current drop (so far).
>
Here is the correct S&P 500 data from Yahoo Finance.
High of 121.74 on 01/11/1973 (high close of 120.24 same day)
Low of 60.96 on 10/04/1974 (low close of 62.28 previous day)
>From high to low -49.9%
>From high close to low close -48.2%
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<b...@a...com> wrote
> I was a little kid during the 1970s and used to watch the evening news
> with parents every day at dinner. On the news, a screen with the Dow
> Jones movement that day would be shown for a few seconds before a
> commercial. I thought it was the "Down" Jones because it typically
> went down. I remember asking my parents at dinner, "why people invest
> in stocks when they usually go down? Are they crazy?".
>
> Now I'm an adult who has read a lot about the "equity risk premium"
> and is one of those investors, and my wife, the investment amateur, is
> asking me the same question. It's not easy to give a convincing
> answer.
This is an excellent example of the triumph of numerology over
reason.
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<j...@n...com> wrote:
> I then looked at the inflation adjusted numbers and saw a total decade
> return of -20%. Ouch. A lost decade.
One lost only if one got out. Those who reinvested their (growing)
dividends, picking up stocks at bargain prices, did well.
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joetaxpayer <j...@n...com> writes:
> Ron Peterson wrote:
> > On Oct 9, 10:41 am, "HW \"Skip\" Weldon"
> >>Does anyone know how much of a percentage decline the SP500
> >>experienced during that period of economic contraction? Something
> >>tells me it was greater than the current drop (so far).
> > The S&P 500 went from 92 to 107 in that decade. It was 65 about
> > September 23, 1974.
>From peak (Dec '02) to bottom (Sept '04), including reinvested
dividends, the decline was on the order of 42%.
And then a fast 16+% increase in the space of a month or so,
finally passing the '02 peak again in Jun '76, wandering
around up and down by a few percent until in Apr '08, it
passed the '02 peak never to fall below there again (only
a brief dip below the '02 peak at the beginning of '08 -
otherwise the whole stretch from early '06 to early '08
was above the '02 peak)
The recession started about halfway through the decline
(end of '03) and ended just a little bit into the stock
market recovery (beginning of '05). How that maps to
where we are now in the market decline and the (likely)
recession, well, that's speculation.
But the beginning and end of the recession do not
correspond to the beginning and end of the stock market
decline - the stock market decline began almost a year
before the recession "officially" started and ended
about 6 months before the recession ended.
[Data from Economagic.com]
> Which if you multiply out, a dollar goes in ends up at $1.75.
> I then looked at the inflation adjusted numbers and saw a total decade
> return of -20%. Ouch. A lost decade.
Inflation adjustments make it a good bit uglier, of course.
During the stock market's decline, inflation (CPI-U) ran at
an average of 8% or so, bouncing around quite a bit, never
really falling below 7% from '73 until early '75, dropping
a bit, then really cranking into double-digits starting in '79.
Of course, there's always more to the story than just
these numbers - what were the market fundamentals like?
Corporate earnings and balance sheets? Global economy
and political balance? It's interesting to look at the
past, but it's hard to predict the future based on it.
--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting
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