 |
|
|
|||||
| « Previous thread | Next thread » |
OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
go up and all the stock averages went down.
Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
spiral.
Comments?
Vito
"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>
>
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional
> to the cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where
> all oil did was go up and all the stock averages went down.
It seems that way recently but historically it is not very well
correlated. Oil was going up while the market was going up from 2003
to 2007.
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
Nobody knows for sure. I personally would expect a decent pull back
before it goes to 200. There aren't long lines at gas stations yet.
But one nasty hurricane could kill that easily.
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money,
> correct.
Unknown. I personally wouldn't be shorting the general market right
now. Interest rates are still relatively low and stock yields are
still beating 10 year treas. yields.
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the
> Str Oil Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in
> the stock averages before they continue their downward spiral and
> oil its upward spiral.
If we have a nasty hurricane, I suspect they will have to open the SPR
spigot or things will really go bonkers. It is probably a good thing
that they did get it almost full.
Fred
Thanks for the reply, Fredi. I likely will just sit back and watch. Seems
when something is 'obvious' just the opposite happens.
Also surest way to get the price of oil to drop is for me to short USO.
Sometimes I am tempted to try it with just a few shares. The loss of $5000
or so would be almost worth the entertainment value. Also with the drop in
oil, the rest of my portfolio would go up.
Vito
"FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in message
news:6d9s1nF1iqg7U1@mid.individual.net...
> "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
> news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>>
>>
>> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
>> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did
>> was go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> It seems that way recently but historically it is not very well
> correlated. Oil was going up while the market was going up from 2003 to
> 2007.
>
>> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> Nobody knows for sure. I personally would expect a decent pull back
> before it goes to 200. There aren't long lines at gas stations yet. But
> one nasty hurricane could kill that easily.
>
>> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Unknown. I personally wouldn't be shorting the general market right now.
> Interest rates are still relatively low and stock yields are still beating
> 10 year treas. yields.
>
>> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str
>> Oil Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
>> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
>> spiral.
>
> If we have a nasty hurricane, I suspect they will have to open the SPR
> spigot or things will really go bonkers. It is probably a good thing that
> they did get it almost full.
>
> Fred
>
Fred has always been my wrong money indicator.
No oil pullback, market to 8,600 dow points, oil to $455. Fred has
been callin' for a market rally since his daugher was a virgin.
Short the following, its the road to riches. . . . Visa, Mastercard,
ETFC, RIMM
The academic short of a lifetime is GM, not ford. This is a bear
market, all the stuff that was hot going into next week will
suddenly and violently roll over and plunge. Puts and EEV (double
inverse emeging market) are other sure fire bets/ It will
soon be time to short shale oil and gas plays when word gets out about
horrible net recovery rates.
My only bet here is will this be a depression or recession?
"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>
>
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
> go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
> Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
> spiral.
>
> Comments?
>
> Vito
I would say that there's nothing wrong with owning a double-short ETF right
now, in a proportion in keeping with your pessimism.
JG
>
>
>
"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:SsadnewD2ZQ4TPLVnZ2dnUVZ_rLinZ2d@linkline.com..
.
> Thanks for the reply, Fredi. I likely will just sit back and watch.
> Seems when something is 'obvious' just the opposite happens.
>
> Also surest way to get the price of oil to drop is for me to short USO.
Well, let us know just before you do it, then. :-)
In fact, if your bets are perfectly inversly correlated with what you buy,
I'm sure there's a few dozen people here who would be glad to cover your
losses.
JG
>
> Sometimes I am tempted to try it with just a few shares. The loss of
> $5000 or so would be almost worth the entertainment value. Also with the
> drop in oil, the rest of my portfolio would go up.
>
> Vito
>
>
> "FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in message
> news:6d9s1nF1iqg7U1@mid.individual.net...
>> "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
>> news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>>>
>>>
>>> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to
>>> the cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil
>>> did was go up and all the stock averages went down.
>>
>> It seems that way recently but historically it is not very well
>> correlated. Oil was going up while the market was going up from 2003 to
>> 2007.
>>
>>> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>>
>> Nobody knows for sure. I personally would expect a decent pull back
>> before it goes to 200. There aren't long lines at gas stations yet. But
>> one nasty hurricane could kill that easily.
>>
>>> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>>
>> Unknown. I personally wouldn't be shorting the general market right now.
>> Interest rates are still relatively low and stock yields are still
>> beating 10 year treas. yields.
>>
>>> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str
>>> Oil Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
>>> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
>>> spiral.
>>
>> If we have a nasty hurricane, I suspect they will have to open the SPR
>> spigot or things will really go bonkers. It is probably a good thing
>> that they did get it almost full.
>>
>> Fred
>>
>
>
>
Hi Vito,
For me it would be the opposite. As soon as I bought USO long it
would go down for sure. ;-) And what is up with DUG? Oil went up and
so did it the last couple of days. Market was screwy last week. ECB
raised rates and the dollar went up against the euro. What is up with
that?
Fred
"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:SsadnewD2ZQ4TPLVnZ2dnUVZ_rLinZ2d@linkline.com..
.
> Thanks for the reply, Fredi. I likely will just sit back and watch.
> Seems when something is 'obvious' just the opposite happens.
>
> Also surest way to get the price of oil to drop is for me to short
> USO.
>
> Sometimes I am tempted to try it with just a few shares. The loss
> of $5000 or so would be almost worth the entertainment value. Also
> with the drop in oil, the rest of my portfolio would go up.
>
> Vito
>
>
> "FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in message
> news:6d9s1nF1iqg7U1@mid.individual.net...
>> "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
>> news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>>>
>>>
>>> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional
>>> to the cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where
>>> all oil did was go up and all the stock averages went down.
>>
>> It seems that way recently but historically it is not very well
>> correlated. Oil was going up while the market was going up from
>> 2003 to 2007.
>>
>>> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>>
>> Nobody knows for sure. I personally would expect a decent pull
>> back before it goes to 200. There aren't long lines at gas
>> stations yet. But one nasty hurricane could kill that easily.
>>
>>> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money,
>>> correct.
>>
>> Unknown. I personally wouldn't be shorting the general market
>> right now. Interest rates are still relatively low and stock yields
>> are still beating 10 year treas. yields.
>>
>>> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the
>>> Str Oil Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in
>>> the stock averages before they continue their downward spiral and
>>> oil its upward spiral.
>>
>> If we have a nasty hurricane, I suspect they will have to open the
>> SPR spigot or things will really go bonkers. It is probably a good
>> thing that they did get it almost full.
>>
>> Fred
>>
>
>
>
"FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in news:6da6odF1kcppU1
@mid.individual.net:
> Market was screwy last week. ECB
> raised rates and the dollar went up against the euro. What is up with
> that?
we won the currency Limbo Game... "how low can you go?"
the chinese have floated their currency some more....
weren't getting enuff rice in exchange for the jet skis and toaster ovens
they be shippin to the USA
now the dollar follows the Yuan UPWARDS !
"ausound" <a...@s...com> wrote in message
news:Xns9AD2937D7DC98ausoundspambogco@216.168.3.70..
.
> "FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in news:6da6odF1kcppU1
> @mid.individual.net:
>
>> Market was screwy last week. ECB
>> raised rates and the dollar went up against the euro. What is up
>> with
>> that?
>
> we won the currency Limbo Game... "how low can you go?"
> the chinese have floated their currency some more....
> weren't getting enuff rice in exchange for the jet skis and toaster
> ovens
> they be shippin to the USA
>
> now the dollar follows the Yuan UPWARDS !
Yeah, also perhaps folks realize the euro is topped out and is doomed
by the ECB raising rates in an economy that is already slowing down.
;-) The euro's only and last heyday.
Fred
On Jul 5, 1:00 pm, "Buff-Meister \"BUFFETTHATER\""
<B...@g...com> wrote:
> Fred has always been my wrong money indicator.
>
> No oil pullback, market to 8,600 dow points, oil to $455. Fred has
> been callin' for a market rally since his daugher was a virgin.
>
> Short the following, its the road to riches. . . . Visa, Mastercard,
> ETFC, RIMM
>
> The academic short of a lifetime is GM, not ford. This is a bear
> market, all the stuff that was hot going into next week will
> suddenly and violently roll over and plunge. Puts and EEV (double
> inverse emeging market) are other sure fire bets/ It will
> soon be time to short shale oil and gas plays when word gets out about
> horrible net recovery rates.
>
> My only bet here is will this be a depression or recession?
depression.. 10 years at the bottom, 10 more at least to dig out...
starting a few months ago, bottom will be over the next two or three
years if not suddenly...I predict a sudden drop and panic but not to
the bottom... bottom comes in years following. No up spikes after
that.
the short opportunities are now unless you miss timing and get caught
in a short squeeze.. that will happen pervasively also as insiders
manipulate the markets.
Phil scott
| « Previous thread | Next thread » |
the cause of market rallies is . . .
FED now is getting into Commercial paper now
Lawyerkill's Plan to fix everything
Re: POSTING SOCIALIST SPAM IN THIS NEWSGROUP IS TREASON
Air Jordan V x Air Force 1 Fusion,Nike AF1 x Air Jordan 5
Up