 |
|
|
|||||
| « Previous thread | Next thread » |
the europeans will be coming to buy up usa oil companies soon.....
Vito, t all depends on what congress does or does not do. if they put
back in the great limits roosevelt put on commodity speculation, oil
will drop like a rock, if not,forget $200 dollars a barrel,think $1000
dollars a barrel at least.see, when a gang of speculators get together
an commit extortion;(you need it,we control it,we will see how much we
can bleed you for.)m the sky is the limit ,because the criminal
mentality has no conscience...greed i the drvig factor.like the old
westerns wher the crook dams up the river and wants tomake everyone pay
up or else.there is plenty of wate in those movies,but the crook is
committing "extortion"...just like they speculators are doing with the
oil.
"Arrest the oil commodity speculators for conspiracy to commit "price
fixing" !
On Jul 5, 1:21 pm, "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote:
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
> go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
> Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
> spiral.
>
> Comments?
>
> Vito
You could buy puts on DJX, use, list all options check box (circle)
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
by buying puts you know that you only lose what you paid for them if
you miss. As someone pointed out there is no
guarantee on anything when engaging in speculative trading.
An 'overview' for these recent times is stock Market wants to go up
and the 'reality' check is capital markets negative events(credit
events and
mortgage related evens, investment bank belly ups etc).
So right now, knowing the timing of the next event is not as clear as
it has been
--the drying up of CP market last august, the collapse of SIVs shortly
after, Bear Stearns vanishing into Morgan Gty...
at the moment its more the usual inflation this inflation that...do we
lose a car company in the US, or another investment bank, or some
other unrecognize
surprise next...not so clear at the moment.
So even with a very reasonable/obvious view 'things will get worse' to
have the timing to make a
speculative play is not as easy as it has been up until now. And you
need the timing. Options expire
or 'going short' gets too expensive to maintain the losing position
and you have to get out having lost.
N
Right on Nostro. About a year ago I was heavily into options and even when
I got the direction correct, the timing was off. If the timing is not
purfect, then commissions, spreads, time decay, all contribute to give you
basically only a small gain when you are right. When you are wrong, or your
timing isn't perfect, you die a slow death.
I am going to sit tight. Hedges just limit your gains since you end up
betting both ways. Better that you sell all and put it in a mattress or
short the SPX than go both ways. Hedges just makes it so you are always
wrong.
Vito
<n...@g...com> wrote in message
news:d3d0e4cd-9ef3-4e95-a280-716b04b3b261@s50g2000hs
b.googlegroups.com...
On Jul 5, 1:21 pm, "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote:
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
> go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
> Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
> spiral.
>
> Comments?
>
> Vito
You could buy puts on DJX, use, list all options check box (circle)
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
by buying puts you know that you only lose what you paid for them if
you miss. As someone pointed out there is no
guarantee on anything when engaging in speculative trading.
An 'overview' for these recent times is stock Market wants to go up
and the 'reality' check is capital markets negative events(credit
events and
mortgage related evens, investment bank belly ups etc).
So right now, knowing the timing of the next event is not as clear as
it has been
--the drying up of CP market last august, the collapse of SIVs shortly
after, Bear Stearns vanishing into Morgan Gty...
at the moment its more the usual inflation this inflation that...do we
lose a car company in the US, or another investment bank, or some
other unrecognize
surprise next...not so clear at the moment.
So even with a very reasonable/obvious view 'things will get worse' to
have the timing to make a
speculative play is not as easy as it has been up until now. And you
need the timing. Options expire
or 'going short' gets too expensive to maintain the losing position
and you have to get out having lost.
N
Gee it sure has not changed much around here. The maaakit of twenty percent.
Biggest Teddy bear picnic in years, and this guy wants to short. Short the
dollar not the stock
Namara<---Don't want no short peoples rund cher. :-)
"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>
>
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
> go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
> Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
> spiral.
>
> Comments?
>
> Vito
>
>
Hello Vito,
Earlier this year, that is sometime end last year/beggining 2008 we
had the sub-prime crisis. Resulting in presently unestimated losses
to the financial giants across the globe. Some of whom went
bankrupt. At that time the equity markets were at an all time high in
India and many other countries. However, to compensate for the losses
caused by the sub-prime the foreign institutional investors started
withdrawing their money from the emerging markets amongst other
markets. So, in hindsight any chart would show you the 30 degree
decline that has taken place in stock prices.
However, this money had to be invested somewhere and it went into
commodities including crude oil. So, this crude oil price increase
may not be the result of a supply-demand mismatch in the commodity
itself but due to the increase of money supply into it. It is simple
economics, keep the supply-demand of crude at a constant or with a
certain percentage increase over time based on genuine demand; now
increase the money supply towards it. So, money becomes cheaper and
the crude oil becomes more expensive.
This high prices of crude oil along with some other commodities has
resulted in hightened inflation across the globe, with the result that
there is a fear of erosion of the earning growth rates of the
corporate entities underlying the stocks, thereby causing a downward
revision of valuation to enable a nearer present fair value to the
stocks.
Now as we all know the equity markets cannot and do not go staight up
or down. This up move or down move happens in steps. I expect that
at present enough price damage is already in place. So, in the near
term we may expect a upward pull back in stock prices before the
downslide continues after a while, if at all. Now that, if at all
would depend on external factors including the price of crude oil at
that point of time in the future along with other commodites which
have a direct bearing on inflation. It may be at USD 200/bbl but it
could also be at USD 100/bbl.
Now, if it is at USD 200/bbl then we are all in big trouble across the
globe. And then probably there would be govenment intervention and
rationing; and the equity markets would most definately be at lower
levels. But, if the crude oil rates were to receed to USD 100/bbl we
would most definately have an increased money supply into the equity
and other financial markets across the globe. Bringing back a certain
amount of balance and equilibrium. However, the timing of occurance
of these events in the future is unknown and therefore the fear
amongst investors.
Sincerely,
Akash
http://www.narachinvestment.com
On Jul 5, 10:21 pm, "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote:
> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to the
> cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil did was
> go up and all the stock averages went down.
>
> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>
> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>
> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str Oil
> Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
> spiral.
>
> Comments?
>
> Vito
| « Previous thread | Next thread » |
Re: POSTING SOCIALIST SPAM IN THIS NEWSGROUP IS TREASON
Air Jordan V x Air Force 1 Fusion,Nike AF1 x Air Jordan 5
Up