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October 5 2008.
The IPCC has stated that: Most of the observed increase in global
average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations,
mainly carbon dioxide. This conclusion is based on output from global
climate computer models known as General Circulation Models (GCM).
David Douglass and John Christy, in a paper recently accepted for
publication and already available on the internet, have come to a
different conclusion.
By considering observed, as opposed to modelled, temperature changes and
at different latitude bands they conclude that:
1. El Nino and La Nina effects in the tropics have a more significant
affect on global temperature anomalies than carbon dioxide, in
particular it was an El Nino event that drove the 1998 global
temperature maximum.
2. Variations in global temperatures since 1978 have mostly been due to
climate effects in the northern hemisphere (northern extratropics) and
these effects cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide.
3. Carbon dioxide has contributed a small amount to an increase in
global temperatures but without what is commonly referred to as
feed-back.
David Douglas and John Christy are practicing climate scientists from
the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, and
Department of Atmospheric Science and Earth System Science Center,
University of Alabama, respectively. Their paper entitled 'Limits on
CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth', was recently
accepted for publication in Energy and Environment.
A regular at this blog, Cohenite, comments on the Douglass-Christy paper
in a fairly technical note already posted at the community webpage of
this blog, and entitled 'Temperature Trends and Carbon Dioxide',
suggests that there is no evidence for a contribution from carbon
dioxide to global temperatures and that the role of the sun has been
underestimated.
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/
--
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
: "They don't tell you, that, in their computer models, it's assumed
that CO2 drives global warming. In other words, you assume the result
and say the computer model proves we were right. It's garbage in,
garbage out. If you don't program the computers to cause temperatures to
rise with CO2, then you have nothing." Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Professor
Emeritus Geology, Western Washington University
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