Pivot Points - Nibbling at The 3-day Trend - CHART

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1. Date: 2008-11-13 12:56:54
Subject: Pivot Points - Nibbling at The 3-day Trend - CHART
From: Asher <a...@n...net.il> Search message by this author

BS"D

PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT

The 3-day Bear trend (10-Minute, bottom left, lower chart) continues
unabated.
Ripped a couple of profitable trades, but mostly trading was sideways,
lazily
drifting south.

The market is still hovering at a potentially significant precipice.
Therefore, a red flag warning remains in effect.

[SNIP]

E-mini
Wednesday Nov 12, 2008

1 = Morning opens gap-down, with a 123 continuation Anomaly off the S1
(Overnight, bottom left, upper chart). We don't trade
Anomaly "S" signals.

2 = Mid-air reversal (blue arrow) gives way to a 123 continuation
(orange arrow). In spite of the strong Volume (pink arrow),
I remain unsure whether or not this really qualifies (good ole risk-
conservative me).

A = When Price Action cleanly breaks free with a 2-candle 123 retest
of S1, enter aggressively with initial stop above S1.

B = DVS (pink arrow) drives a large red candle.

NOTE: Late-in-the-move DVS generally is a TELL for the "last spurt
before Momentum is spent".

Our position is in violation of MPG rules. Mental stop at Giveback
level. Prepare to exit.

C = Volume diminishes, but remains strong, causing us to wonder at our
tape-reading skills in = B, above.

Large red candle, per our PMT stop rules, invites us to move the
profit-locking stop tighter, above the high of the candle/Giveback
level.
Will Momentum die, or will the Bears achieve the S2 Primary Objective?

D = Lower-Low-Turns-White (just barely) might not have shaken you out,
but by the time the candle completes, it is a mid-air reversal.
Likely the MA will continue to hold (it has for 3 days, 10-Minute,
bottom left, lower chart. Also note 3-day trend channel, green lines),
but
our stop is in the path. Exit Now! +/- 7.50 points

[SNIP]

4 = Multi-top "P" (squint and you can see a mini Head-and-Shoulders
pattern in there).

E = Large red candle pulls us in with initial stop above the high of
the candle.

F = A red Spinning top makes what looked to be a massive drive now
look worrisome. Call this a large red candle, and move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle.

G = Giant red candle puts out position in MPG violation. Mental stop
at Giveback level.

H = White Spinning top/Lower-Low-Turns-White may be an Exit Now!

When the following candle retraces 2+ points of the red candle, assume
a mid-air reversal to retest the MA (which will trigger our stop).
Exit Now! At least the candle collapsed, giving us positive
slippage! +/- 7 points

MA Resistance contains Price Action to EOD.

PERSPECTIVE

(Daily, bottom right, lower chart)
Price Action has escaped the middle LT SW Channel and is headed to
test the final S/R floor, contract low (plum dotted line).
That makes it vaguely a TTT attempt. Will he make it?!? Tune in
tomorrow!!!

(Monthly, bottom right, upper chart)
Since November doesn't show on this chart till Nov. 30, I drew it in
(vertical blue bar). The market is approaching the low of
the famous "Hi-tech Crash". Isn't it interesting how two and a half
months of "negative inflation" ate up the gains of a 3-year
up trend segment (plum lines).

If we were investors or long-term traders we'd be going nuts, and
broke. As day traders, the rapid plunge has been most
profitable. Hope you are stashing away some of it for a rainy days.

Thursday may well be a spike-down, giving way to no more than a
breather day, or perhaps even close Bullish.
Now Friday is a gonna be bit more scary.

REMEMBER: Trade the tape, not my prognosis!

Asher
=] ;-)>
Pivot Magic Trading Course
http://www.tradingthingys.com/PMTJ/Commodity%20Day%2
0Trading.html

Wednesday's PMT Chart:
Http://www.TradingThingys.com/PMTJ/PivotMagic111208.
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