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the real suckers are the ones who pull out their money AFTER the stock
market has corrected because they listened to the chicken littles who
have a devious motive for their constant scare mongering.
DISOBEY !
Wouldn't you say the moving average indicators tend to be
too late after-the-fact indicators?
==============================================
On Nov 28, 6:03 am, ausound <a...@s...com> wrote:
>
> spot on opinion
> your perspective lends additional dimension to my own views
>
> DJI to 6100 or thereabouts
> Nasdaq to 1200 or thereabouts
> s&p500 to as low as 600, I would tend to interpret to 725
>
> after the post 911 rally
> the general market consolodated and formed a double bottom in mid2002 &
> early2003
> after which we enjoyed Cheany's 5 yr bull market
>
> the DJI's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 10 year moving
> average
>
> the S&P500's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 15 year moving
> average
>
> and the Nasdaq's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 20 year moving
> average
>
> all three of those Indexes have fallen through those previously
> established support lines
>
> all of those indexes have fallen below the point where terrorists chose
> to attack in an attempt to inflict a mortal blow to capitalism at the
> moment of perceived economic weakness.
====================================================
=====
> Marcus Aurelius <a...@h...com> wrote in news:4b3a1b16-4d30-
> 4...@g...googlegroups.com:
>
> > The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
> > perplexing to investors. T
> > But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
> > Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
> > positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
> > preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
> > half.
> > After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
> > be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
> > volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
> > and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.
I think you're right, but to many people, it's a real dilemma:-
Year 2008 DJIA 8000 Stock price $80 No. of shares owned
1,000 Debts $20,000 Net fortune $60,000
Positive outcome scenario -
Year 2011 DJIA 32000 Stock price $320 No. of shares owned 1,000
Debts $20,000 Net fortune $300,000
Depression outcome scenario -
Year 2011 DJIA 2000 Stock price $20 No. of shares owned
1,000 Debts $20,000 Net fortune $0
====================================================
==
On Nov 28, 1:57 pm, c...@w...net wrote:
> the real suckers are the ones who pull out their money AFTER the stock
> market has corrected because they listened to the chicken littles who
> have a devious motive for their constant scare mongering.
>
> DISOBEY !
Everybody is telling us how it was during the great depression. Well how
many of you were alive then to give us first hand experience. If you were
alive, you were likely 10 years old or less.
I get tired of hearing referenses to that period. All depressions are
different.
Except for those folks that bought their houses in the last 5 years or so,
we are still hi on equity even with the RE bubble bursting.
Even if our stock portfolios down 50%, we still have investment/retirement
money.
What is the unemployment rate? 10%? Still means 90% are still working.
You wrote:
>Tell that who finished loosing it all in 1933. that will be
>repeating shortly.
>Phil scott
Uncle_vito wrote on 11/28/08 10:54 AM:
> Everybody is telling us how it was during the great depression. Well how
> many of you were alive then to give us first hand experience. If you were
> alive, you were likely 10 years old or less.
>
> I get tired of hearing referenses to that period. All depressions are
> different.
>
> Except for those folks that bought their houses in the last 5 years or so,
> we are still hi on equity even with the RE bubble bursting.
>
> Even if our stock portfolios down 50%, we still have investment/retirement
> money.
>
> What is the unemployment rate? 10%? Still means 90% are still working.
>
>
> You wrote:
>> Tell that who finished loosing it all in 1933. that will be
>> repeating shortly.
>
>
>
>> Phil scott
>
>
I think he forgets that during the Great Depression, there was no FDIC,
so when a bank folded, ALL the deposits were gone......people bought stocks
on 10% OR LOWER margin so it didn't take that much of a move to wipe their
equity out, etc.
Right now, the economy sucks, but this isn't going to be another 1929...
Hello Rich Uncle,
Well, I would suggest that you apply the exponetial moving averages
for starters. Then decide if you are playing for the short run or the
long run.
In case your investment plan is for the short run, then apply the 7
day EMA and 21 Day EMA to the price volume charts of the stock you
have under study. If however, your investment plan is for the long
run, then apply the 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA to the price volume
charts of the stocks under study. The crossover points of the 2
respective EMAs would give you fair indication as to the probable next
moves of the stocks under study.
You may also consider applying other momentum indicators as adjuncts
to your study to get further confirmation of eminent price volume
trends of the stocks you may have under study.
In most cases the EMAs and other momentum indicators are considered to
be lead indicators (and not lag indicators) of future price volume
action of the stocks you may have under study. You may also consider
applying the on-balance volume to get the daily volumes into
perspective.
Sincerely,
Akash
http://www.narachinvestment.com
http://narachinvestment.blogspot.com
http://feedproxy.google.com/narachinvestment/uaXA
http://www.narachphilosophy.com
http://narachphilosophy.blogspot.com
http://www.narach.com
http://finance.narach.com
On Nov 28, 5:57 pm, Rich Uncle <m...@g...com> wrote:
> Wouldn't you say the moving average indicators tend to be
> too late after-the-fact indicators?
>
> ==============================================
> On Nov 28, 6:03 am, ausound <a...@s...com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > spot on opinion
> > your perspective lends additional dimension to my own views
>
> > DJI to 6100 or thereabouts
> > Nasdaq to 1200 or thereabouts
> > s&p500 to as low as 600, I would tend to interpret to 725
>
> > after the post 911 rally
> > the general market consolodated and formed a double bottom in mid2002 &
> > early2003
> > after which we enjoyed Cheany's 5 yr bull market
>
> > the DJI's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 10 year moving
> > average
>
> > the S&P500's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 15 year moving
> > average
>
> > and the Nasdaq's 2002/3 double bottom formed right on it's 20 year moving
> > average
>
> > all three of those Indexes have fallen through those previously
> > established support lines
>
> > all of those indexes have fallen below the point where terrorists chose
> > to attack in an attempt to inflict a mortal blow to capitalism at the
> > moment of perceived economic weakness.
>
> ====================================================
=====
>
>
>
> > Marcus Aurelius <a...@h...com> wrote in news:4b3a1b16-4d30-
> > 4...@g...googlegroups.com:
>
> > > The increasing volatility in the market indicies is extremely
> > > perplexing to investors. T
> > > But the recent rally does not signify a bottom to the indicies.
> > > Rather it indicates two factors: 1. The covering of short sale
> > > positions; and, 2. the strategic, tactical, and psychological
> > > preparation for a final panic sell off over about the next month and a
> > > half.
> > > After the same, of course, the bottom of the current bear market will
> > > be reached as there being significantly diminished volume and
> > > volatitlity concommitant with the inaurguration of a new US Presiden
> > > and new US Congress validating that a market bottom has been reached.- Hide
quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
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