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How do you know for a fact that the Treas. was selling Euros? It
seems to me that oil made the downward move first and the dollar
followed. That is what the charts are saying. How many Euros are
they holding that they have to sell? ;-)
Fred
"lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
news:489d3242$0$18048$ec3e2dad@news.usenetmonster.co
m...
> Isn't it amazing that less than 90 days remain until Election Day
> and crude is starting to fall. No, I'm not knocking the
> Republicans, because both parties have manipulated election year
> markets for decades. Back in the days before electronic trading,
> the Big Board specialists were extremely "helpful" to the party in
> power making the Dow look better than it was. Specialists have a
> much limited role these days and so it appears that our boys in DC
> are going the Forex route.
>
> To paraphrase Claude Rains: "I am SHOCKED! SHOCKED!" that the
> commodities markets can be manipulated by the Fed, the Treasury Dept
> and the Energy Dept.
>
> All the Treasury had to do was sell Euros, thus making the dollar
> look cool for awhile and the outcome is that crude (CL) comes down,
> since at least half of the CL price is based on the USD relative to
> the Euro. And don't forget even a threat to open the Strategic Oil
> Reserve to lower prices gets commodity traders jittery. It's so
> simple even a drunk who thinks he's a Ferrari Mechanic could figure
> this one out.
>
> But like all manipulations, as George Soros pointed out in the days
> he traded GBPs, even a government can manipulate the market for just
> a finite period of time before old man Supply and Demand and his
> cousin, the devalued USD, take over CL pricing once more.
>
> So take advantage of lower energy prices (if $3.50 per gallon of
> gasoline is "lower"). And if you are buying stock, consider buying
> just for the trade and selling by late October because after
> Election Day expect at least a notable retrace in CL prices if not a
> full scale resumption of the rising trend.
>
>
> "Don Tiberone" <s...@m...com> wrote in message
> news:c63e9c67-6b64-4a03-b6ac-b2474df503bc@56g2000hsm
.googlegroups.com...
>> Commodity Stock Decline `Insane,' JPMorgan's Henderson Says
>>
>>
>> By John Dawson and Brett Foley
>> Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Mining and oil stocks offer
>> ``bargains'' for investors after a ``completely insane'' slump
>> in the past month, said Ian Henderson, who manages $7 billion in
>> natural-resource assets at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
>
"Don Tiberone" <s...@m...com> skrev i meddelelsen
news:c63e9c67-6b64-4a03-b6ac-b2474df503bc@56g2000hsm
.googlegroups.com...
> Commodity Stock Decline `Insane,' JPMorgan's Henderson Says
Well, obviously we're getting to the "prime" borrowers now and they have to
sell somthing to cover their margin calls! So they sell the "gold" to afford
to hold onto the crap - a litte longer!!
Prime borrowers are an endangered species: Like f.ex. people here in the DK
that have borrowed against their property and "invested" the proceeds in a
pension fund to gain some marginal tax credit now and a potential gain
later. Looks more like they will be wiped out now; they loose their job and
cannot pay the mortgage but the property is underwater so they will also
have to cash the pension plan to cover the debt @ a 60% tax penalty for
cashing out early.
"jeflin" <a...@j...net> skrev i meddelelsen
news:7cbaf304-aa4b-45f7-b1aa-5c114f27ee49@i20g2000pr
f.googlegroups.com...
> On Aug 9, 7:38 am, "Bill Reid" <h...@h...net> wrote:
>> Dr Tormento <r...@t...com> wrote in message
>>
>> news:Xns9AF484F916771rforschrcncom@69.16.185.247...> Don Tiberone
>> <s...@m...com> wrote in
>>
>> news:c63e9c67-6b64-4a03-b6ac-
>>
>> > b...@5...googlegroups.com:
>> > > ``This huge correction we have seen in the past four weeks
>> > > in resource companies really is completely irrational,''
>>
>> > Translation: "I'M LOSING MY ASS!!!"
>>
>> Wrong again, "Pickled Pimento".
>>
>> Here's the canonical "guru"-to-English translation guide:
>>
>> "If oil breaks below 120 we expect consolidation at 115, and
>> we will evaluate the next move up or down at that time."
>>
>> Translation: We have no idea where oil is going.
>>
>> "We believe the current sell-off in oil is unwarranted based on
>> supply and demand factors."
>>
>> Translation: Even though we had no idea where oil was going, we
>> stupidly went long anyway and are getting nervous about our trade.
>>
>> "We believe the current slide in oil prices to be INSANE!!!"
>>
>> Translation: Looks like another sub-prime fiasco for us, but maybe
>> if we question the sanity of the move this will somehow shame people
>> or something into liquidating our bad trade. < (but yes, at this point,
>> they ARE close to losing their ass)
>>
>> "We believe that a conspiracy of illegal activity in the futures market
>> and/or perhaps the federal government and/or perhaps OPEC and/or
>> perhaps the Illuminati-Freemasons for no logical reason or rational
>> benefit is driving down oil prices, and we demand an immediate
>> investigation
>> and CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OF THE GUILTY PARTIES!!!"
>>
>> Translation: NOW WE'RE LOSING OUR ASS!!!
>>
>> "We never predicted or recommended a long trade on oil, unlike
>> many other analysts, but merely pointed out some technical considerations
>> for evaluating the future direction of the oil market."
>>
>> Translation: WE TOTALLY LOST OUR ASS AND WERE SOLD
>> TO A KUWAITI SCHOOLBOY FOR $0.0000017/SHARE!!!
>>
>> ---
>> William Ernest Reid
>> Post count: 1150
>
> Other issues to consider is that Baltic Index has been falling and so
> has electrical consumption in China. The Chinese economy is cooling or
> at least consolidating.
There is also a war going on in Georgia that would put a crimp in some pipe
lines. Apparently Georgia betted on NATO/US support and was disappointed.
>
> Bill, I love your translations. :)
Yep ;-)
"lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
news:489d3242$0$18048$ec3e2dad@news.usenetmonster.co
m...
> Isn't it amazing that less than 90 days remain until Election Day and
> crude is starting to fall. No, I'm not knocking the Republicans, because
> both parties have manipulated election year markets for decades. Back in
> the days before electronic trading, the Big Board specialists were
> extremely "helpful" to the party in power making the Dow look better than
> it was. Specialists have a much limited role these days and so it appears
> that our boys in DC are going the Forex route.
I assume you read Peter Lynch's first book after retiring from Fidelity. He
said that he once was in Japan, and a person connected with the Japanese
Stock Exchange told him to the dollar what the price of a particular stock
would be at six months hence at the end of the year. It can happen, when
everyone agrees it will happen. America hasn't agreed on anything of that
magnitude since WW2.
>
> To paraphrase Claude Rains: "I am SHOCKED! SHOCKED!" that the commodities
> markets can be manipulated by the Fed, the Treasury Dept and the Energy
> Dept.
>
> All the Treasury had to do was sell Euros, thus making the dollar look
> cool for awhile and the outcome is that crude (CL) comes down, since at
> least half of the CL price is based on the USD relative to the Euro. And
> don't forget even a threat to open the Strategic Oil Reserve to lower
> prices gets commodity traders jittery. It's so simple even a drunk who
> thinks he's a Ferrari Mechanic could figure this one out.
Why would the Dems (who were the ones talking about opening the SOR) try to
make the GOP look good?
>
> But like all manipulations, as George Soros pointed out in the days he
> traded GBPs, even a government can manipulate the market for just a finite
> period of time before old man Supply and Demand and his cousin, the
> devalued USD, take over CL pricing once more.
>
> So take advantage of lower energy prices (if $3.50 per gallon of gasoline
> is "lower"). And if you are buying stock, consider buying just for the
> trade and selling by late October because after Election Day expect at
> least a notable retrace in CL prices if not a full scale resumption of the
> rising trend.
I don't doubt in the least that politicos try to mess with the market in
this way. What I reject is the idea that the FOREX, which is many times
larger in volume than the NYSE, can be manipulated by such a small group of
people. You'll have to list the monied co-conspirators who are together on
this one, and why am I expecting that this is going to lead to London
Bankers and the Rothchilds.......?
By my read, the dollar is rising simply because the US economy looks less
shitty than the enormous mess that the rest of the world is about to
experience. 6-12% inflation rates will screw up an economy pretty quick;
plus, the Japanese just declared they believe in they'ree in recession
yesterday. Take a look at what Australians pay for mortgages. If you listen
to overseas analysts based in HK and Singapore and India, they're all
speaking in terms of the US economy bottoming out, and in terms of bad times
expected in the Asia-Pacific econozone.
JG
>
>
> "Don Tiberone" <s...@m...com> wrote in message
> news:c63e9c67-6b64-4a03-b6ac-b2474df503bc@56g2000hsm
.googlegroups.com...
>> Commodity Stock Decline `Insane,' JPMorgan's Henderson Says
>>
>>
>> By John Dawson and Brett Foley
>> Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Mining and oil stocks offer
>> ``bargains'' for investors after a ``completely insane'' slump
>> in the past month, said Ian Henderson, who manages $7 billion in
>> natural-resource assets at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
>
As I said before the great thing about this newsgroup is you
can get all the same bad guessing for free as you would get
from a high-paid "professional" analyst with better PR and
marketing...
FrediFizzx <f...@h...com> wrote in message
news:6g4rkdFe0oa0U1@mid.individual.net...
> "lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
> news:489d3242$0$18048$ec3e2dad@news.usenetmonster.co
m...
> > Isn't it amazing that less than 90 days remain until Election Day
> > and crude is starting to fall. No, I'm not knocking the
> > Republicans, because both parties have manipulated election year
> > markets for decades. Back in the days before electronic trading,
> > the Big Board specialists were extremely "helpful" to the party in
> > power making the Dow look better than it was. Specialists have a
> > much limited role these days and so it appears that our boys in DC
> > are going the Forex route.
OK, kids, get out your "guru"-to-English translation guides:
"We believe that a conspiracy of illegal activity in the futures market
and/or perhaps the federal government and/or perhaps OPEC and/or
perhaps the Illuminati-Freemasons for no logical reason or rational
benefit is driving down oil prices, and we demand an immediate investigation
and CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OF THE GUILTY PARTIES!!!"
Translation: NOW WE'RE LOSING OUR ASS!!!
> > To paraphrase Claude Rains: "I am SHOCKED! SHOCKED!" that the
> > commodities markets can be manipulated by the Fed, the Treasury Dept
> > and the Energy Dept.
"We believe that a conspiracy of illegal activity in the futures market
and/or perhaps the federal government and/or perhaps OPEC and/or
perhaps the Illuminati-Freemasons for no logical reason or rational
benefit is driving down oil prices, and we demand an immediate investigation
and CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OF THE GUILTY PARTIES!!!"
Translation: NOW WE'RE LOSING OUR ASS!!!
> > All the Treasury had to do was sell Euros, thus making the dollar
> > look cool for awhile and the outcome is that crude (CL) comes down,
> > since at least half of the CL price is based on the USD relative to
> > the Euro. And don't forget even a threat to open the Strategic Oil
> > Reserve to lower prices gets commodity traders jittery.
"We believe that a conspiracy of illegal activity in the futures market
and/or perhaps the federal government and/or perhaps OPEC and/or
perhaps the Illuminati-Freemasons for no logical reason or rational
benefit is driving down oil prices, and we demand an immediate investigation
and CRIMINAL PROSECUTION OF THE GUILTY PARTIES!!!"
Translation: NOW WE'RE LOSING OUR ASS!!!
> > It's so
> > simple even a drunk who thinks he's a Ferrari Mechanic could figure
> > this one out.
OK, now get out the "Lowbrow"-to-English translation guide, it's very
simple, only one entry:
Translation: I'm a hate-filled lying poverty-stricken idiotic old man who
discovered last year I can pretend to be anything I want on this new-fangled
thing called the "Internet" pretty much without contradiction, and fly into
slandering rages when a rare non-fake points out my numerous lies and
stupidity.
> > But like all manipulations, as George Soros pointed out in the days
> > he traded GBPs, even a government can manipulate the market for just
> > a finite period of time before old man Supply and Demand and his
> > cousin, the devalued USD, take over CL pricing once more.
Yeah, this is true, but it is also true that the "inventory problem"
will only last a finite amount of time as well.
Of course, I have to assume that "Lowbrow" is not aware of the
"inventory problem" (the concept itself, though it may go by many
different names). I first learned about it in an Economics class in
college, and got it re-drilled into me in management training, so perhaps
our cranky old retired tollbooth toll collector just doesn't have the
educational and professional background to have encountered it,
and if he did, he clearly doesn't have the intellect to understand it.
The paradoxical thing about it is that oil prices would be lot LESS
volatile if there were TRULY an EFFECTIVE conspiracy to manipulate
the market.
It's really a shame "Lowbrow" can't comprehend this, because
with a little additional work drawing on certain other disciplines
such as engineering (again, beyond his comprehension) you can
come up with a pretty good predictive tool to "solve" the "inventory
problem" from a trading standpoint...
It's also important to note that the general concept of the "inventory
problem" is large part of "bubble" behavior in financial instruments
trading,
so being able to understand it and work with it to engineer predictive
trading tools is a big plus for "trading" ANYTHING...
> > So take advantage of lower energy prices (if $3.50 per gallon of
> > gasoline is "lower"). And if you are buying stock, consider buying
> > just for the trade and selling by late October because after
> > Election Day expect at least a notable retrace in CL prices if not a
> > full scale resumption of the rising trend.
Maybe, maybe not, maybe prices will start rising again next week,
who knows, CERTAINLY NOT YOU, since you've consistently back-pedaled
and waffled and out-and-out lied on topics of oil prices, the value of
the dollar, and pre-election "manipulation" of the markets (remember
how "Lowbrow" predicted last year this would be big up year for the
equity markets because of this "manipulation", only to scuttle that
"prediction" when it turned out to be wrong, and is now resurrecting
it in modified form to "explain" the rise in the dollar and the short-term
slide in oil prices).
> How do you know for a fact that the Treas. was selling Euros?
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
What did I tell you about being "Lowbrow"ed?!!?!!
You just don't understand, see, everybody has heard of "Eurodollars"
(well, maybe not "Lowbrow", but all minimally-educated persons on the
topic of currency exchange), but you might not be aware (unless you're
a "Lowbrow") of "USeuros", the trillions of euros held in US banks as
the business currency of choice in the US. GM pays its suppliers in
euros, Exxon does all its oil business in euros, come on, get with the
program here, this is Usenet...
> It
> seems to me that oil made the downward move first and the dollar
> followed. That is what the charts are saying.
Careful, careful, you're about this close to becoming a "Ferrari
mechanic", watch yourself...
> How many Euros are
> they holding that they have to sell? ;-)
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
To paraphrase Ashton Kutcher, YOU'VE BEEN "LOWBROW"ED!!!
(and it's about as fun as that stupid show of his, which is to say not very)
---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 1152
Q: How do I know there's government manipulation in commodities?
A: How many days is it to Election Day?
Q: How many Euros are they holding that they have to sell? ;-)
A: Who the hell knows? And who is to say that the Old Lady, the Japanese and
the ECB aren't in on this (particularly the ECB)? The Fed even keeps M3 data
secret, so you're expecting them to tell us what they're trading and when?
Sometimes I think we have a politburo running DC.
Food for thought:
Why is it the USAF is re-evaluating the Northrop-Airbus tanker bid at this
exact time when the EUR appears to be consolidating? Could it be ECB buying USDs
for the USAF letting the Northrop contract stand? Stranger deals have been
made.
Anecdotal:
The moves on a real time chart in CL and EUR are too good and too well
coordinated in comparison to what I have seen over the past year, IMO. Look,
Fred, it's your dough and you can spend it or invest it as you like. And
despite the Weed rants, you do not need his permission to short, if that's what
you want to do.
My only stock trading is daytrading SPY but sometime in 2009, I'll be in a
better position to re-evaluate what's going on for long term investing. It's
just too scary and too close to Election Day to put down money for a long term
investment.
Remember Andy Grove's mantra, "Only the paranoid survive."
"FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in message
news:6g4rkdFe0oa0U1@mid.individual.net...
> How do you know for a fact that the Treas. was selling Euros? It seems to me
> that oil made the downward move first and the dollar followed. That is what
> the charts are saying. > Fred
>
> "lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
> news:489d3242$0$18048$ec3e2dad@news.usenetmonster.co
m...
>> Isn't it amazing that less than 90 days remain until Election Day and crude
>> is starting to fall. No, I'm not knocking the Republicans, because both
>> parties have manipulated election year markets for decades. Back in the days
>> before electronic trading, the Big Board specialists were extremely "helpful"
>> to the party in power making the Dow look better than it was. Specialists
>> have a much limited role these days and so it appears that our boys in DC are
>> going the Forex route.
>>
>> To paraphrase Claude Rains: "I am SHOCKED! SHOCKED!" that the commodities
>> markets can be manipulated by the Fed, the Treasury Dept and the Energy Dept.
>>
>> All the Treasury had to do was sell Euros, thus making the dollar look cool
>> for awhile and the outcome is that crude (CL) comes down, since at least half
>> of the CL price is based on the USD relative to the Euro. And don't forget
>> even a threat to open the Strategic Oil Reserve to lower prices gets
>> commodity traders jittery. It's so simple even a drunk who thinks he's a
>> Ferrari Mechanic could figure this one out.
>>
>> But like all manipulations, as George Soros pointed out in the days he traded
>> GBPs, even a government can manipulate the market for just a finite period of
>> time before old man Supply and Demand and his cousin, the devalued USD, take
>> over CL pricing once more.
>>
>> So take advantage of lower energy prices (if $3.50 per gallon of gasoline is
>> "lower"). And if you are buying stock, consider buying just for the trade
>> and selling by late October because after Election Day expect at least a
>> notable retrace in CL prices if not a full scale resumption of the rising
>> trend.
>>
>>
>> "Don Tiberone" <s...@m...com> wrote in message
>> news:c63e9c67-6b64-4a03-b6ac-b2474df503bc@56g2000hsm
.googlegroups.com...
>>> Commodity Stock Decline `Insane,' JPMorgan's Henderson Says
>>>
>>>
>>> By John Dawson and Brett Foley
>>> Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Mining and oil stocks offer
>>> ``bargains'' for investors after a ``completely insane'' slump
>>> in the past month, said Ian Henderson, who manages $7 billion in
>>> natural-resource assets at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
>>
>
> Why would the Dems (who were the ones talking about opening the SOR) try to
> make the GOP look good?
Congress is on vacation and only a skeleton staff will be around between now and
Election Day. IMO, Congress is temporarily out of the picture. For the next
90 or so days all the moving and shaking will be conducted by Treasury and the
Fed with tech input from the Dept of Energy. It's a given that Treasury will do
whatever is necessary to make the party in power look good. Also, there is
nothing to prevent an undersecretary of energy to have his office spread a rumor
about opening the SOR. With these crazy traders at the NY Merc, it just takes a
rumor to drop CL a couple of bucks.
> I don't doubt in the least that politicos try to mess with the market in this
> way. What I reject is the idea that the FOREX, which is many times larger in
> volume than the NYSE, can be manipulated by such a small group of people.
> You'll have to list the monied co-conspirators who are together on this one,
> and why am I expecting that this is going to lead to London Bankers and the
> Rothchilds.......?
You are certainly correct if you are talking about reversing long term trends.
But for 80 or 90 days a consortium of the Old Lady, the ECB and Fed can attempt
to manipulate things. The Old Lady tried to fight Soros and lost, so even in a
losing battle there is, however, precedent on how irrational central banks can
be. The ECB I believe are the ones to watch because there is a huge USAF tanker
contract that was originally awarded to the Northrop-Airbus partnership that is
conveniently "under scrutiny" 87 days from Election Day.
Look, I'm not saying there's a deal going on, but it's rather suspicious that at
this time, when the Administration needs Euros to come off, that the USAF is
re-evaluating a very significant contract that would benefit a number of
countries in the EC.
>
> By my read, the dollar is rising simply because the US economy looks less
> shitty than the enormous mess that the rest of the world is about to
> experience. 6-12% inflation rates will screw up an economy pretty quick; plus,
> the Japanese just declared they believe in they're in recession yesterday.
> Take a look at what Australians pay for mortgages. If you listen to overseas
> analysts based in HK and Singapore and India, they're all speaking in terms of
> the US economy bottoming out, and in terms of bad times expected in the
> Asia-Pacific econozone.
>
Who knows when the hell they had this data and how long it has been sitting in a
locked container?. Don't forget we have a Fed that's so secretive, it won't
even release M3 data.
"lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
news:489e000d$0$18028$ec3e2dad@news.usenetmonster.co
m...
>> Why would the Dems (who were the ones talking about opening the SOR) try
>> to make the GOP look good?
>
> Congress is on vacation and only a skeleton staff will be around between
> now and Election Day. IMO, Congress is temporarily out of the picture.
> For the next 90 or so days all the moving and shaking will be conducted by
> Treasury and the Fed with tech input from the Dept of Energy. It's a
> given that Treasury will do whatever is necessary to make the party in
> power look good. Also, there is nothing to prevent an undersecretary of
> energy to have his office spread a rumor about opening the SOR. With
> these crazy traders at the NY Merc, it just takes a rumor to drop CL a
> couple of bucks.
>
>> I don't doubt in the least that politicos try to mess with the market in
>> this way. What I reject is the idea that the FOREX, which is many times
>> larger in volume than the NYSE, can be manipulated by such a small group
>> of people. You'll have to list the monied co-conspirators who are
>> together on this one, and why am I expecting that this is going to lead
>> to London Bankers and the Rothchilds.......?
>
> You are certainly correct if you are talking about reversing long term
> trends. But for 80 or 90 days a consortium of the Old Lady, the ECB and
> Fed can attempt to manipulate things. The Old Lady tried to fight Soros
> and lost, so even in a losing battle there is, however, precedent on how
> irrational central banks can be. The ECB I believe are the ones to watch
> because there is a huge USAF tanker contract that was originally awarded
> to the Northrop-Airbus partnership that is conveniently "under scrutiny"
> 87 days from Election Day.
>
> Look, I'm not saying there's a deal going on, but it's rather suspicious
> that at this time, when the Administration needs Euros to come off, that
> the USAF is re-evaluating a very significant contract that would benefit a
> number of countries in the EC.
It' all sounds like good old Mr. Market to me. If Ben Graham observed the
same sort of fluctuations decades ago and saw them as the normal irrational
behavior of the market, one needs a bit more to assume evildoers are
involved, IMHO.
>
>>
>> By my read, the dollar is rising simply because the US economy looks less
>> shitty than the enormous mess that the rest of the world is about to
>> experience. 6-12% inflation rates will screw up an economy pretty quick;
>> plus, the Japanese just declared they believe in they're in recession
>> yesterday. Take a look at what Australians pay for mortgages. If you
>> listen to overseas analysts based in HK and Singapore and India, they're
>> all speaking in terms of the US economy bottoming out, and in terms of
>> bad times expected in the Asia-Pacific econozone.
>>
>
> Who knows when the hell they had this data and how long it has been
> sitting in a locked container?. Don't forget we have a Fed that's so
> secretive, it won't even release M3 data.
I suspect M3 is well into the zone where it would require scientific
notation for Excel to express it properly. Very depressing.
JG
>
>
> It' all sounds like good old Mr. Market to me. If Ben Graham observed the same
> sort of fluctuations decades ago and saw them as the normal irrational
> behavior of the market, one needs a bit more to assume evildoers are involved,
> IMHO.
It's hard to say would Ben Graham would be thinking during the last 90 days of a
presidential campaign where the party in power is the underdog.
"Lubow" <l...@l...com> wrote in message
news:Qstnk.529$mP.170@trnddc03...
> >
>> It' all sounds like good old Mr. Market to me. If Ben Graham observed the
>> same sort of fluctuations decades ago and saw them as the normal
>> irrational behavior of the market, one needs a bit more to assume
>> evildoers are involved, IMHO.
>
> It's hard to say would Ben Graham would be thinking during the last 90
> days of a presidential campaign where the party in power is the underdog.
No, it's not. He's sitting right here next to Elvis. I'll ask him. :-)
JG
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Republican Math lesson: $1 million is a lot less than $845 billion.
What is leading what? Oil or the dollar?
Mid-Day Performers Thu 08/07/08
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