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d...@y...com wrote:
> 1. is the climate warming? Yes. From all evidence, and all historical
> evidence that we can collect.
Bull.
> And it is warming within reasonable
> parameters of what our models would predict.
Bull.
> 2. is the most likely cause human activity via CO2 accumulation? Yes.
> We can't find any other proximate cause that correlates so well, nor
> that theoretically would give that rise.
Bull.
> there isn't a meaningful
> scientific constituency (that has an expertise in climatology) that
> doesn't think that.
Bull.
> I think when The Economist, which is by anyone's standards a pro
> American, libertarian-conservative pro-business pro free markets
> publication, published a special report in March of 2006 on Global
> Warming, and an editorial saying that something needed to be done, that
> an important turning point in the zeitgeist had been reached-- the
> business world had woken up to global warming.
This I can agree with.
>
> back to investors
>
> Climate change is going to be the investment story of the next 20
> years.
This may be true regardless of whether the climate is actually changing,
and if so, whether humans are causing it.
-Will
> This may be true regardless of whether the climate is actually changing,
> and if so, whether humans are causing it.
>
> -Will
I believe the threat of nuclear winter is far greater than that of
global warming. Either occurance would be bad for investments.
JOE
Will Trice wrote:
> d...@y...com wrote:
Will
'Bull' isn't a rebuttal.
If you read Nature or Science over the last 5 years, there isn't a
meaningful doubt about what is going on. As best as we can know, we do
know. This is peer-reviewed science at work, which is the best tool we
have for scientific progress (and the one by which we judge all other
science).
A big difference between US media and the media of other countries is
that the latter have accepted this, whereas in the US it is still
paralysed to give 'balance' to fringe groups who have an interest in
preventing action on global warming.
What uncertainty there is is about how much, how far, and how much to
do about it (and how quickly). The nub of the argument is 'what price
to put on carbon emission'? There, you will find a wide range (from
$10/tonne to $300/tonne).
Of which it has been well pointed out that uncertainty *increases* our
bias towards early action, because if we are wrong, and too
conservative on our estimates of global climate change, then we could
do really horrendous damage to the planet and our own civilisation.
>
> > 1. is the climate warming? Yes. From all evidence, and all historical
> > evidence that we can collect.
>
> Bull.
The 11 hottest recorded years are in the last 15. There's lots of
other evidence that things are as hot now as they have been in the last
8,000 years. We are fast headed for a planetary surface temperature we
haven't seen in over 500,000 years.
>
> > And it is warming within reasonable
> > parameters of what our models would predict.
>
> Bull.
See Hansen's 'B' Case, 1988. Sufficiently accurate that his critics
saw fit to delete it from their rebuttals. Hansen then correctly
predicted the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on world temperatures
(-0.5 degrees C)-- which was pretty amazing.
The models have moved on a lot in 18 years.
>
> > 2. is the most likely cause human activity via CO2 accumulation? Yes.
> > We can't find any other proximate cause that correlates so well, nor
> > that theoretically would give that rise.
>
> Bull.
There isn't a good other theory about why the temperature changes we
observe are taking place.
>
> > there isn't a meaningful
> > scientific constituency (that has an expertise in climatology) that
> > doesn't think that.
>
> Bull.
No I'll stick with what I say. You can't find people in the know, who
are respectable scientists, who doubt that the planet is warming and
that humans are playing a part in that.
(on Richard Lindzen, who *is* a respected climate modeller. He doesn't
deny global warming, he says increased cloud cover will arrest the
process but admits he doesn't know. He's about the only sceptic I have
found with anything like reasonable credentials).
>
> > I think when The Economist, which is by anyone's standards a pro
> > American, libertarian-conservative pro-business pro free markets
> > publication, published a special report in March of 2006 on Global
> > Warming, and an editorial saying that something needed to be done, that
> > an important turning point in the zeitgeist had been reached-- the
> > business world had woken up to global warming.
>
> This I can agree with.
The tide is turning. Arguably too little, too late, but the great
thing about this grand experiment in human climate forming is that we
will get to see the outcome. Always nice to see the results of your
experiments ;-).
>
> >
> > back to investors
> >
> > Climate change is going to be the investment story of the next 20
> > years.
>
> This may be true regardless of whether the climate is actually changing,
> and if so, whether humans are causing it.
The Prime Minister of the UK (and a number of other global leaders) is
not calling global warming the greatest threat to the 21st century out
of ignorance or political sleight of hand. He is hardly soft on
terrorism, Saddam Hussein or whatever the other threats are out there.
His advisers have told him he ought to be worried, and he is.
This thread has wandered off-topic and is closed.
-------
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Thank you.
-HW "Skip" Weldon
Columbia, SC
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