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Reply-To: "John Galt" <k...@g...com>
From: "John Galt" <k...@g...com>
Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks
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<6...@m...individual.net>
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Subject: Re: Market question for you geniuses
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Date: Sat, 5 Jul 2008 15:11:00 -0500
Xref: atlantis.news.neostrada.pl misc.invest.stocks:522128
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"Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
news:SsadnewD2ZQ4TPLVnZ2dnUVZ_rLinZ2d@linkline.com..
.
> Thanks for the reply, Fredi. I likely will just sit back and watch.
> Seems when something is 'obvious' just the opposite happens.
>
> Also surest way to get the price of oil to drop is for me to short USO.
Well, let us know just before you do it, then. :-)
In fact, if your bets are perfectly inversly correlated with what you buy,
I'm sure there's a few dozen people here who would be glad to cover your
losses.
JG
>
> Sometimes I am tempted to try it with just a few shares. The loss of
> $5000 or so would be almost worth the entertainment value. Also with the
> drop in oil, the rest of my portfolio would go up.
>
> Vito
>
>
> "FrediFizzx" <f...@h...com> wrote in message
> news:6d9s1nF1iqg7U1@mid.individual.net...
>> "Uncle_vito" <u...@y...com> wrote in message
>> news:pNydnRI_-fodMPLVnZ2dnUVZ_jydnZ2d@linkline.com..
.
>>>
>>>
>>> OK. Seems obvious that the stock market is inversely proportional to
>>> the cost of oil. This can be seen in the last few weeks where all oil
>>> did was go up and all the stock averages went down.
>>
>> It seems that way recently but historically it is not very well
>> correlated. Oil was going up while the market was going up from 2003 to
>> 2007.
>>
>>> Well it seems like oil is headed to $200/bbl.
>>
>> Nobody knows for sure. I personally would expect a decent pull back
>> before it goes to 200. There aren't long lines at gas stations yet. But
>> one nasty hurricane could kill that easily.
>>
>>> So that means if I short the DJI or SPX I should make money, correct.
>>
>> Unknown. I personally wouldn't be shorting the general market right now.
>> Interest rates are still relatively low and stock yields are still
>> beating 10 year treas. yields.
>>
>>> Seems like a sure thing unless the US Gov announces opening up the Str
>>> Oil Reserve or something like that which would cause a blip in the stock
>>> averages before they continue their downward spiral and oil its upward
>>> spiral.
>>
>> If we have a nasty hurricane, I suspect they will have to open the SPR
>> spigot or things will really go bonkers. It is probably a good thing
>> that they did get it almost full.
>>
>> Fred
>>
>
>
>
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